Update: Tom Steyer has dropped out of the race.

Joe Biden won South Carolina. His victory is not a surprise. The margin of his victory, however, is. He's going to end up with a 30-point victory over Bernie. I thought that after his poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, and his second-place finish in Nevada that Biden would squeak out a win in South Carolina, but do so in a way that muddled the choice by moderates even more.

It looks like Biden will come out of South Carolina not only the as the consensus choice among moderates, but probably the frontrunner for the nomination, again.

"We just won and we won big," Joe Biden declares in South Carolina. "We are very much alive!"

— Sabrina Siddiqui (@SabrinaSiddiqui) March 1, 2020

This is why:

Black voters in South Carolina via preliminary @CNN exit polling:

Biden 60%
Sanders 17%
Steyer 14%
Warren 5%
Buttigieg 3%
Gabbard 1%
Klobuchar 1%

— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) March 1, 2020

Good job, Toaster Biden! People are going to ask Klobuchar and Buttigieg (and maybe even Warren) to drop out, but I don't even think that is necessary at this point. South Carolina signaled to all the other moderate voters who to back, and on Tuesday the moderate wing of the party will take South Carolina's cue. This will pretty much end up a race between the establishment Biden and the anti-Establishment Bernie. I doubt even Bloomberg is gonna make much of a dent.

On Super Tuesday, Bernie will take California, Biden will take Texas, Bernie will take New England, and Biden will take the South. I'll be interested to see who wins Minnesota (if Klobuchar drops out), Colorado, and Virginia, where Tim Kaine has backed Biden. Bernie and Biden will both probably both come out of it well-positioned to take on the other, and then we can have a real conversation -- not about electability, but about moderate or progressive policies and what this party really wants in a candidate.

Unless Elizabeth Warren comes out of nowhere and blows up everybody else's spot.

I swear to God, if the future of our Democracy were not at stake, this would be a terrifically fun political race to watch purely from a political standpoint.