Here we go, folks: The impeachment hearings are set to begin today, which is good because the heat surrounding impeachment has cooled some in the last week or so because the transcripts of testimony didn't move the needle on public opinion. And above all, this impeachment hearing is about moving public opinion. There is no doubt that Donald Trump committed an impeachable offense, and we're going to see witness after witness after witness testify to the same damning story.
The question is: Will it matter? Will independents be persuaded? Can the Democrats get public support for impeachment up to 59-60 percent, to a point where Republican Senators start to crack? And the answer is: I don't know. We'll see career, non-partisan diplomats outline a story of corruption, of foreign interference, of obstruction, and abuse of power, but will it register with television viewers? Will anyone even be watching the hearings, given that we're probably not going to learn anything we didn't already know?
It will be interesting to see how the Republicans in the House handle it. From what I am reading, it looks like they're not going to deny the damaging testimony provided by the likes of Ambassador Taylor and Assistant Deputy Assistant Secretary George Kent, who are very credible witnesses. They're going to scapegoat Rudy Giuliani and Gordon Sondland. They're going to try and distance the President from the actions that were taken on his behalf. "Rudy will be cut loose because he was rogue," a Republican source told Axios.
Giuliani, meanwhile, ran an op-ed in the WSJ this morning, which may have been designed to avoid becoming the scapegoat by saying that what happened wasn't impeachable, but that he definitely did it at the direction of Trump:
"Mr. Trump requested that Ukraine root out corruption; he didn't demand it. His words were cordial, agreeable and free of any element of threat or coercion. Mr. Trump offered nothing in return to Ukraine for cleaning up corruption. If you doubt me, read the transcript. Allegations of Burisma-Biden corruption weren't even a major part of the conversation. The focus was on Ukrainian corruption broadly speaking and out of a five-page transcript Mr. Trump spent only six lines on Joe Biden. ... the left's inability to accept the results of the 2016 election and fear of Mr. Trump's policy agenda have driven the Democrats into a frenzy."
It would be really interesting if Trump and the Republicans go full-bore when they throw Rudy under the bus. Could he pull a Michael Cohen and turns on the President? It'll be a delicate balance, and if Rudy goes down, will he take the President with him?
In case you're curious how this works, each of the two witnesses will be grilled by Daniel S. Goldman, a lawyer for the Democrats who, according to the Times, "made his bones as a prosecutor by sending mobsters, stock swindlers and a multimillion-dollar inside trader to prison, cases in which colleagues said he mixed brains and "swagger" to win convictions." He'll get 45 minutes with each witness, and each lawmaker will get five minutes of questions. Attorney Stephen R. Castor will run point for the Republicans.
This is below the line, but it is worth noting that Trump has considered firing Michael Atkinson, the Inspector General that he appointed, who was also the guy who took the whistleblower complaint to Congress and told them it was credible (that seems like obstruction?). He apparently also wants to fire Mick Mulvaney over his performance in that quid pro quo press conference, but his aides are strongly advising him against doing so during the impeachment hearings. Trump obviously doesn't want Mulvaney -- who was instrumental in freezing aid to Ukraine -- on his bad side.
Meanwhile, we still wait to find out if John Bolton is going to be a part of this proceeding.
0 comments