Good morning. Here's the state of the race after the ballot counting last night: Biden is leading in Nevada, and the outstanding votes are thought to favor him. We'll know those results later today. In Arizona, Trump is closing the gap, and it's going to be close. In Georgia, Biden is closing the gap, and it's very close already (Biden is down by 18,000 votes now, and it should be noted that Ossof is also on the cusp of forcing a runoff in the Senate race). In Pennsylvania, Biden is down by 3 points, but there's still a lot of outstanding votes and they are expected to favor Biden.

Biden just needs Nevada and one other state. Most folks believe he will get it. I like to think that, if there are enough votes for Trump to overcome a 3+ deficit in Arizona, there's definitely enough votes for Biden to overcome a 3+ deficit in Pennsylvania. One of those has to break for Biden, one would think. I'd much rather be in Biden's position than in Trump's, but also: I'm not going to count any chickens (except the ones in my yard, to make sure they're all there). We thought the Russia probe would be the end of Trump. We thought at one point that there was a chance he'd be successfully impeached. It doesn't appear that Trump has a lot up his sleeve -- apparently, Jared Kushner threw their legal strategy together on the fly just yesterday. When Rudy Giuliani is out making public statements on your behalf, your campaign is probably not in good shape -- but you never know with these people. They play dirty. They cheat. I saw yesterday that Trump told his people to go down fighting. He will throw his own children under a literal bus to save his own ass.

"Do you think we're stupid? Do you think we're fools?" --Rudy Giuliani in Philadelphia, discussing the PA vote. #Election2020 pic.twitter.com/5FVZT9pyZ8

— The Recount (@therecount) November 4, 2020

Trump also has a lot of passionate (potentially violent) supporters. Trump has also appointed a lot of judges. Someone said yesterday that they're not too worried about that, because those judges may have been appointed by Trump, but they were all selected by Mitch McConnell and the Heritage Foundation, and there is a difference between incredibly conservative judges and completely off the rails. This right here, after all, is insane, because the only way Trump can win is if those votes are counted. He's currently losing in Arizona!

Trump supporters are literally outside a government building in Arizona protesting the fact that votes are being counted. pic.twitter.com/hxi6VU9ZTS

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 5, 2020

I'll believe it when I see it. A lot of norms have fallen over the last four years. I won't trust anything until every network calls it for Biden. Even then, I won't trust anything completely until Biden is sworn in. When I woke up this morning and opened up my laptop, it was still on MSNBC from the night before, and on Morning Joe they were talking about what Trump would do after he left office. STOP THAT RIGHT NOW. We're not there. yet. Maybe later this morning. Maybe this afternoon. Maybe tomorrow. Maybe never.

Count every vote. Remain cautiously optimistic. The Trump Administration has been like a terrible horror movie, and we don't know yet if it's the kind where we get away in the end, or if he lumbers back to life and chases us over a cliff.