Can Joe Biden Win the Presidency by Default?

April 30, 2020

There is reporting based on three people revealing that last Friday, Donald Trump huddled with his campaign staff at the White Houe, and after learning about his polling numbers in swing states, the already unhinged President unleashed on his campaign manager, Brad Parscale. Not only did Trump reportedly berate Parcale over the phone, but he threatened to sue him (it is unclear upon what grounds Trump could sue his campaign manager). What is remarkable about the conversation is how badly Trump -- an incumbent President (badly) handling a national crisis -- is doing in both national polls and in swing states, where he's getting trounced in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and losing by a smaller margin in Wisconsin. Who is Trump even losing to?

Oh yeah! Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee. As people often say in my SNL recaps: "Is that show still on?" Yes, the Joe Biden show is still on, although it is airing from the basement of Biden's Delaware home, where he holds Zoom chats with voters, apparently host a podcast, and calls in to local newscasts to talk about the news of the day (this is probably the most effective part of his campaign strategy at the moment).

Mostly, however, the former VP is fulfilling that nickname we gave him early on: Toaster Biden. As in, we'd vote for a Toaster over Donald Trump. Biden barely qualifies as even a toaster at the moment, but he is running a fairly strong, "At Least I'm Not Trump" campaign. Unfortunately, the only news that the Biden campaign seems to be making at the moment is about how it is maintaining its silence on a sexual assault allegation from Tara Reade, a former aide who worked in Biden's Senate office in the early 1990s. This is really complicating the "At Least I'm not Trump" campaign, because there are plenty of Democrats who might feel uncomfortable about voting for a toaster with a sexual assault allegation, while Republicans have no such reservations about the multiple sexual assault allegations leveled against their candidate.

The allegation has quietly raised the specter of the Democratic party choosing a different candidate, although that is very unlikely to happen because there are no plausible alternatives upon which the party could agree. There has been talk about Andrew Cuomo taking over as the nominee -- a notion Cuomo has denied, although Trump has also raised that prospect -- but this is fairly typical of the cold feet the party gets before nearly every single nominating convention. In fact, Trump reportedly has held off on running a full slate of negative ads against Biden out of fear that he'd knock Biden out of the race too early and he might have to face a more formidable challenger. This is clearly delusional thinking.

Biden would be wise to get on top of the allegation, but so long as Trump continues to go out and advise the American public to drink bleach, the former Vice President could very well win by default. At this point, I think, many of us are just waiting on him to choose a VP, so at least there is someone on the ticket we can be excited about.

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