We're just weeks away from the beginning of Josh Duggar's child pornography trial.

While the defense will likely spend that time continuing their efforts to have the case dismissed, it seems unlikely that they'll be succesful.

Josh's legal team previously filed five motions to have key evidence thrown out of court, and the judge denied all five.

The most recent of these decisions came last week, and it could be devastating to Josh's case.

The most crucial component of the defense's argument is that the laptop on which the pornographic content was found does not belong to Josh.

It was for this reason that lawyers tried to have video evidence found on Josh's computer suppresed.

That motion was denied by the judge, which led Duggar's attorneys to attempt an even more desperate bid to have the video evidence thrown out.

They argued that investigators were lying when they claimed that two incriminatiing videos were “successfully downloaded by law enforcement."

They claim that only one video was downloaded successfully, and the other was downloaded only partially.

Obviously, the defense is splitting hairs at this point, but we suppose that's what lawyers do when they start to run out of options.

Fortunately, the judge in Josh's case saw right through that absurd argument.

“Mr. Duggar has failed to acknowledge the elephant in the room: " the judge wrote in his most recent ruling.

"Law enforcement fully and successfully downloaded one complete file -- a video -- from his IP address, and the description of that video alone provides probable cause to search his electronic devices for evidence of a crime.”

Not only is the one video probable cause, it could be enough, on its own, to lock Josh up for a very long time.

Needless to say, it's been one legal defeat after another in recent weeks, and any smart defendant would be considering a plea deal at this point.

Unfortunately for Josh, it looks as though that ship has sailed.

The official deadline for Josh to file for a plea deal was October 18.

It came and went without any sort of deal being reached.

And amazingly, Josh's decision not to seek a deal came after he learned that all of his motions to have evidence suppressed were denied.

He might still be able to finagle a deal that would lead him to a shorter prison sentence if the judge rules that Josh's case is "exceptional."

Obviously, Josh is exceptionally gross, but we can't think of any reason why his case should be judged differently from that of any other sexual predator.

So in all likelihood, if Josh enters a guilty plea it will be regarded as an "open plea," meaning that he would basically be throwing himself on the mercy of the court.

It's unlikely that he'll take such a risk, which means the case will almost certaimly proceed as scheduled on November 29.

Insiders say important members of Josh's family -- including his wife and parents -- believe that he's 100 percent innocent.

As for Josh, he's probably hoping he can get away with it again -- just as he's been getting away with everything for his entire life.